A.D. Cantelmo Property Management
Our Business is Property Management in Orange County California
How to forecast the
Real Estate Market
The title is a bit misleading,
because I really don’t think you should be in the business of forecasting the
Real Estate Market or any other investment. I do think, that there are some tell
tale signs of which way the Real Estate market may go. Today U.S. Housing
numbers came out and there are some interesting information in the numbers.
Even though I am a Real Estate
Broker in the Business of Property Management in Orange County Ca. I am also A
licensed California General Contractor, and I guess you can say I am a very big
fan of builders in this Country. Home building is a very difficult industry
that has many pitfalls, especially here in California. When I look at the
numbers that came out today, the builders are telling me where they think the economy
is going.
Housing starts fell in October, but
that is not the important number. Housing permits rose to a 6 ½ year high, and
that is the big number. Builders are in the business of forecasting, because
their product will not be ready for sale for months down the road so they need
to be confident that if they start a project today, there will be enough buyers
in the future to buy their product.
I think that the telling number, is Permits
for single-family homes rose 1.4 percent to a 640,000-unit pace. Permits for
multi-family housing surged 10 percent to a 440,000-unit pace. The multi-family
permits caught my eye.
As a property Manager in Orange County Ca. I love to see
these multi-family units being built, but that also tells me that builders
think that this is still an investor driven economy.
I think this is great news for Real Estate Investors and I agree with the
builders that the rental market is strong and going to get stronger in 2015.
The Mortgage applications rose, Total application volume rose 4.9 percent
week-to-week for the week ending November 14th.
The increase was driven almost entirely by applications to purchase a home –
a turnaround from recent months. While refinance applications rose just one
percent week to week, purchase applications leapt 12 percent to the highest
level since July. But for the most part people are still tentative to jump in
the Real Estate Market and for the time being are staying in their rental home.
While these numbers are encouraging for getting buyers back in the Market, I
think it is still going to be at least another year of good economic news
before Real Estate begins to gain strength again now that investors have bought
up most of the distressed properties and are out of the single family market.
Again, look at the builder and you will get a glimps of the direction of the
Real Estate Market. I think it is still and investor driven market for the time
being.
A.D. Cantelmo Property Management Specializes in Property
Management on Orange County Ca.